by Hasan Alsancak
After Osama bin Laden's call for attacks against oil, in December 2004, and Ayman al-Zawahiri repeated the call in autumn 2005, al-Qaeda's terrorist attack to Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia's giant oil processing facility, was the first direct attack by al-Qaeda. Even if the attack was announced a failed terrorist attack by official Saudi statements, on news of the attempted attack, the price of crude oil leapt as much as 3.4%. The attack was not only proof of vulnerability of Saudi oil but also importance of oil targets by terrorist elements.
In 2006 the consequences of gas row between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Russia's challenge to European countries to increase gas price, and Iran's threatening the world with increasing the oil prices if they are not allowed to continue to construct Iran's Nuclear Energy Plant clearly showed how energy dependency had reached to a critical point as of today. These incidents have also proven that the problems on energy and energy security has potential to shake world economy and global security atmosphere.
In light of above mentioned incidents it will not be difficult to assess that in the 21st century energy and energy security topics will be much more important than previous centuries. Regret to say that contrary to its giant market value current security measure and methods about oil plants, pipelines and nuclear energy plants are not sophisticated as required. With September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on America at the World Trade Center Towers in New York City and The Pentagon in Washington, terrorists proved that current terrorism methods reached to the phase of “asymmetric terror,” which means the targets themselves, will be operative material of terrorist attacks. Doing so, terrorists gained a possibility to give maximum damage with much less logistical support comparing the classic terrorist tactics.
Obviously energy infrastructures are one of the best and soft targets for this kind of terrorism. Therefore, it is high time for international security agencies and multibillion dollars energy corporations to cooperate and together pay more attention to develop new energy security strategies. Within this perspective Turkey's importance, responsibility and role on energy security needs to be reconsidered. Geographically her being located among major oil, gas and water suppliersand consumersenhance Turkey's value as a geostrategic country. Particularly when we consider the potential of Turkey to transit Caspian oil and gas, the possibility for Kazakh and Turkmen energy resources to be added to the Baku-Erzurum route, as well as the possibility of a natural gas pipeline to be extended to Israel and the Middle East can transform Turkey easily to a regional energy hub.
Currently, European gas supplies are coming excessively from Russia, therefore, not to be dependent on one gas source and route, the idea of having an alternative non-Russian, gas namely Turkmen, Iranian and Iraq via Turkey route is getting more important day by day. In other words re-structuring the “East-West” and “North-South” energy corridors are not a dream but an obligation for the European consumers, as well as Caspian and Middle Eastern gas and oil suppliers.
At the beginning above assessments might be looking positive and advantageous for Turkey; however it adds heavy responsibilities to her shoulders. As it is known, Turkey's main national security strategy is based on her activities against separatist, leftist and radical terrorism. It is hard to say that Turkey already included energy security topic to its national security strategy as optimum level. Also, as a candidate country to protect benefits of her European neighbouring countries, Turkey should pay more attention on this topic, and therefore she should closely cooperate with them on this matter. Turkey's geographic position not always brings her advantages. Her large eastern and south-eastern land borders from security point of view problematic countries such as Iran, Iraq and Syria obliges Turkey to be pro-active and make concrete steps on global security concerns, including energy security and counterterrorism.
In other words, if Turkey wants to take an important role in the energy world or to be part of it, she should more focus on emerging trends of energy, including development in energy security polices. Without an advanced national strategy on energy security, only hoping considerable results from her being in the crossroads of energy sources, suppliers will not carry Turkey to the world energy league. Turkey should be aware of advantages and disadvantages of her geographic position and security situation and considering these facts, her official agencies should closely cooperate with international organizations, particularly NATO, and energy research associations, as well as multinational energy companies to develop better strategies on this area.
Ultimately, if Turkey plays her energy security cards wisely and put into practice some significant solutions, it will not be a dream to expect in a considerably short time of period her being a regional energy hub and seeing regional private energy companies settling and re-functioning their investment in her borders. To have a prosperous future Turkey should not miss her chance to be in energy league with a better understanding on energy security and she should be in a proactive cooperation with her neighbors, as well as leaders of representatives of energy sector.
This article, written by Hasan Alsancak, Stratim Advisory Board Member for Energy Security and Energy Security Director of BTC Co. Turkey, was issued in the portal of The Ankara Center for Turkish Policy Studies (ANKAM) on 21 June 2006.
